Of Ether's total supply of 119 million, nearly 10% is now out of circulation and pledged on the Beacon chain.

Since the launch of the Ether 2.0 Genesis block on December 1, 2020, more than 10 million ETH worth $26 billion have been sent to deposit contracts, a milestone that took just over a year.

Another milestone may be reached by December of this year when equity awards are unlocked approximately six months after consolidation to full Proof of Stake (PoS).

The final test network for the merger has now been launched and is expected to go live, possibly in June of this year.

Once completed, there will be a six-month period for pledgers to continue to hold additional rewards, currently at 4.8% APR on ETH, but it will not be possible to bring it to market before it is unlocked.

During this period, there will be no selling pressure from miners or pledgers, as miners will be kicked out and pledgers will have to wait.

ETH Miner Daily Bonus, March 2022 ETH Miner Daily Bonus, March 2022

Ether miners currently receive more than 13,000 eth per day, currently worth $34 million or about $1.2 billion per month.

After the merger, they are expected to get exact zeros around June. At that time, the different K charts will become correlated and pledgers will be rewarded daily with.

Ether Daily Pledge Bonus, March 2022 Ether Daily Pledge Bonus, March 2022

As we saw above, Staker's total daily rewards grow gradually from about 1,000 points per day.

This is due to the formula of trying to keep APR attractive even when new pledges come online, making it a moving unit, as opposed to a proof of work (PoW) with flat daily rewards.

So we need to make some estimates. So far, one of them is about 300,000 eth in pledge rewards, and the total should be about 500,000 to about 700,000 by the time it's unlocked.

That sounds like a lot, but it takes about two months in proof-of-work mining, and it's a one-time new supply that will enter circulation once the pledge is unlocked six months after the merger.

After that, new supply will enter circulation at a rate of 0.4% per year, down from the current 4%, or about $100 million per month at current prices, compared to $100 million every three days at the current PoW.

So that's a huge change in supply and by far the biggest change, but it's not that different from the current roughly 1.7% per year of bitcoin, which will drop to 0.8% in 2024 after it's halved.

Eth will do this first in just three months and will have no new circulating supply for a while between the merger and the unlock, so it could take its place on Bitcoin.

But if you have a longer-term perspective, in terms of probability, it's more compared to bitcoin, and in terms of probability, they might very well suggest this year, next year, or 2024-25, eth is likely to be close to the current bitcoin price.

Of course, that's assuming all else remains equal, and so far their actual price numbers on ETH are almost as good as Bitcoin's, just four years behind.

This is because eth has also been halved, as shown in the block reward K chart above.

This time though eth will not reach 1.7%, the current rate of bitcoin inflation, as it has previously kept bitcoin inflation at twice the rate and therefore follows its cycle.

Instead, eth is somewhat ahead of the next bitcoin halving in 2024 and now jumps to bitcoin inflation, this time putting eth two years ahead.

Does that mean rollover? That's the trillion dollar question, isn't it, and there's not much room for analysis in this particular page, so we'll be satisfied to say that actually we'll be in uncharted territory, there's anything up for grabs, including of course 10 times from the current price, or even from the recent top.

From that $5,000, that would bring eth's market cap to about $5 trillion, at least not enough to drop the suggestion that eth might again follow the bitcoin price to $50,000.

Very true, but only time will tell if it will actually happen.