Update from Willy Wu. Little has changed since the last review. We are still waiting for demand to return to the market.

Summary as of March 11, 2022 (current price $39.1k).

  • Structural conclusion: Institutions and major shareholders continue to sell off.
  • Price expectations: bearish trend in place until we see signs of demand returning to the market.
  • Personal opinion: There is no doubt that we are in a bear market due to the duration of the sell-off. In a BTC bear market, there is never a bottom without yielding. Therefore, I think there is a good chance that the current levels will collapse and we will test lower lows before the coins start to increase their holdings and prepare for the next bull cycle.

Proceed with caution Please do not make trading decisions based on these predictions, assuming perfect accuracy behind them. All forecasts are probabilistic. Short-term market movements are subject to unpredictable events and market randomness. Manage risk accordingly. Longer-term forecasts tend to be more reliable because the full impact of fundamentals takes time to develop.

Although hodlers are buying, demand has not yet emerged

We saw a significant rise in hodler purchases. Unfortunately, that was offset by a sell-off in the futures market. Based on the latest reviews, we are waiting for demand to come in and I think the first signs of this will come in the futures market, which tends to react much faster.

Still waiting Supply and Demand Whales in the Bitcoin Market / Institutional Selling Continues

The chart below shows the K-line chart of large BTC holders: when they sell, they have a lot of influence. Now we are in a whale selling coins mode.

Still waiting Coins move between whales

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