Above Banco Original's expectations (134,000 vacancies), data from Caged (the general register of employees and unemployed persons under formal contracts) showed a balance of 155,000 formal jobs in January, which corresponds to a net creation of 148,700 in a series without seasonal effects. This brings Brazil to 41.5 million jobs managed by the CLT.

While enrollments rose 2.4% m/m in January, firings also stood out with a 1.4% m/m increase, both seasonally adjusted. Here, the only sector showing a positive marginal change in the contract balance is services (16.30% m/m), one of the sectors with the greatest capacity for expansion in our 2022 economic activity scenario (especially in services to households), with an increase in enrollment (1.4% m/m) and a decline in firings (-0.3% m/m).

The DOL also reports that 853,000 jobs (previously 2.1 million) remain tied to the new emergency benefits (Bem) temporary employment guarantee (a program created during the pandemic that allows for everything from suspension to reduced hours) and wages, a measure that helps limit the number of layoffs), and that by April 2022, the balance should reach 173,876. This amount is equivalent to 2 percent of the total job stock. This amount corresponds to 2% of the total work stock and reflects the agreement signed until August 26, 2021.

It is worth noting how the average real enrollment wage, as measured by Caged, accelerated from R$1,805.35 in December to R$1,920.59 in January, with a volatility of 6.4% in the series without seasonal adjustment. Banco Original's sources assume that more qualified workers are re-entering the formal job market from more qualified and higher paying positions. This is evidenced by the increase in voluntary dismissals, reinforcing the understanding that part of this movement (relocation) can be explained through job exchanges, especially for professionals in service sectors involving technology (telework).

Looking ahead, reflecting the bank's forecast of a 0.5% expansion in GDP (with weak activity), Original estimates that 700,000 formal jobs will be created in 2022, with the 2.7 million jobs created in 2021 slowing, but still a very positive number.

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